The Future of Work: A Talent Segmentation
Meeting the Moment
Nearly one year on into the global pandemic, it has become an eye-rolling meme to complete the Mad Lib of “COVID has acted as an accelerant to .” And while society hopes for the broad, quick, and safe administration of vaccinations that help end the extended isolation and danger to which many have been exposed, certain trends accelerated or induced by the pandemic will continue their course. One of these trends, contained within the larger theme of the Future of Work, is the hybrid (i.e., non-single place of work) model that represents the path forward for most knowledge workers.
For purposes of knowledge workers - whose primary activity is the development, communication, and deployment of ideas - the component parts and enabling mechanisms of the Future of Work have been here for some time. Increasingly inexpensive laptops, monitors, and accessories; ubiquitous (even if unevenly distributed) wi-fi; available low-latency video communications; and pens, pencils, and paper abound. Armed with these tools - and a moderately quiet space to engage in self-reflection and participate in team dialogue - many knowledge workers can accomplish what they need to with a dose of self-discipline and planned distractions. The office may be an activity hub and a source of energy, but no two employees experience their workplace in exactly the same way. One person’s destination for intellectual and emotional connectivity is another’s source of stress and anxiety.
It’s fascinating to reflect on the degree to which the productivity of people and companies engaged in knowledge work – particularly in or adjacent to the technology industry – stayed steady during the pandemic. Researchers at Wharton and Microsoft reported in November that the majority of workers are getting more done than at this point a year ago. Mark Andreessen commented in a Clubhouse forum that he never could have imagined the velocity of product development he saw in 2020, both inside and outside companies in the a16z portfolio. And of course the lack of time spent on travel has meant more time available for work, with positive effects related to productivity and innovation despite a more mixed picture related to well-being and creativity.
Recent research by McKinsey suggests that as many as 7-10% of people across western nations will transition to new careers in a post-COVID scenario. This suggests that the current moment provides an opportunity – and for some, creates an obligation – to ask how and where to focus time and energy in ways that will both enable career growth and generate impact on the economy and the world. Thus, in a vaccinated world, the pandemic offers knowledge workers one Great Mulligan. A once-in-a-career occasion for us to collectively and individually ask and answer the question, how can I be at my best? And when, where, and with whom?
Disclaimer: This essay is written with the acknowledgement of privilege. I am not addressing how workers in factories producing electronics in Shenzhen, sewing garments in Madras, or fighting fires in the Australian Outback will - or will not - get to re-imagine their lives. I am, perhaps selfishly but also pragmatically, laying out a thesis for the way in which the working life of one subculture of capitalist humanity, the western knowledge worker, is likely to change. Also of note is that I offer these hypotheses not yet on the basis of an original quantitative survey of knowledge-worker respondents, but on the basis of my expertise and experience as an empirical researcher, marketing leader, people manager, and builder of employee experiences.
Finally, although we will certainly see variance across geographies and industries as the Future of Work takes shape, my belief is that the correct primary anchor is the individual person-as-employee. People change jobs, sectors, and homes – but in doing so, they typically retain their essential “humanness.” As such, though it is still too early to make any predictions with certainty, I think that the one-year mark of the pandemic is the right time to posit a segmentation of knowledge workers in connection with the Future of Work.
A Future Talent Segmentation
What might the segments of talent look like in the Future of Work? Into what groupings can we reasonably assume – given what we know right now – employees will self-select, given the choices they need to make about their lives?
Underlying this perspective is the assumption that each segment will adhere to some type of hybrid model – that is, a comfort with and routine involving more than one workspace. The percentage of time allocated to (and output associated with) each workspace may vary, but the simplifying assumption is that, in 2021 and beyond, hybrid is here to stay – essentially no knowledge workers will accomplish all of their work in only one place.
As with any segmentation, the point is not that a person falls exclusively into one group or another. Rather, it’s a set of archetypes that can help explain and guide a person’s behavior at any given point on their career continuum.
Here are a few segments I believe will emerge as we step further into the Future of Work, from the most obvious to the most debatable:
The Basic Boomerang. You are a person who wishes nothing had ever changed. The separate places for work/life/other help drive your focus and productivity, and the intraday changes to your physical space help you focus on the people you’re with – work, family, friends – and be more present with them. You enjoy being at the office, primarily because it’s a reliable way to get work done on your own and with others. The commute might even be an important ritual in your day when you speak to others on the phone, tune into a podcast, or listen to music. Maybe you’ve got roommates or a number of family members at home, and the overcrowding of bandwidth and physical space in 2020 had a negative impact on both basics (like a reliable Internet connection) and higher-order elements (like the ability to generate creative thinking). Bottom line, work was working for you, and ideally, you’d go back to something close to the way things were.
The Strategic Scheduler. For you, being in the office is all about getting your best work done – whether that means writing code, leading a meeting, closing a deal, or completing a forecast. Moving forward, rather than being in the office every day, your default will be to be there for the occasions when you, your team, and your work require it most. You might be in the office one day a week, or it might be more. But whatever your reasons for being in the office, in a post-pandemic world, your organizing principle shifts from a time basis to an activity and productivity basis. And you empower yourself – and your team – to shift to this new way of thinking and working. Maybe it’s a half-day working session to come up with new campaign concepts, and you want your full team and an agency there in person. Maybe it’s demo day for a key customer, and you want to make sure you have the mental – and physical – space to be at your best. Maybe you’re on deadline and need to finish a few articles in a space of solitude.
The Community Curator. You believe work isn’t work without the spirit and spontaneity that comes from both intentional and accidental dialogue, debate, and discussion. And these digital interactions, though efficient, are simply no substitute for getting together in person to connect and create. For you, getting the team together – even just to riff on campaign ideas, discuss the latest trends, brainstorm future features, or catch up on life – is the fuel that feeds the engine of productivity, and running on “E” is not an option. As the future of work unfolds, you’ll be creating time and space in the office for your team to build bonds – and then encouraging them to build products and services in the places and at the times that are best for them.
The Time Bender. Remember when you had to choose between taking kids to school, exercising, or getting to that 8:30am meeting on time? In a world where expectations have changed, the advantage belongs not to the time-keepers, but to the time-benders. Want to eliminate the tradeoff between exercising and the morning staff meeting? Take the meeting from the seat of your bike. Want to stop choosing between picking up your kids and getting the day’s work done? Schedule work time at night. Though you respect the needs and boundaries of your team, you no longer have to live in a world of tradeoffs – so you step into the blend of work and life and feel more energized than ever before.
The Revolutionary Reformer. You’re someone who looks askance at the entire capitalist model of getting work done. Go to a specific building five days a week where you work or attend meetings, loosely held within the arbitrary bounds of 9am and 5pm? Sit in traffic at the same time everyone else is sitting in traffic? Not getting to enjoy the outdoors when the sun is actually out? You’re ready to completely invent a new model of working, and you have the flexibility to do it. Want to base yourself in Florida or Arizona for the winter and avoid the snow? Done. Want to spend a month at each of your company’s offices and get to know more colleagues? Do it. Want to have meeting-free Mondays and Fridays? You can. Want to invent a set of mores that doesn’t yet exist? That power is yours as well. You’re someone for whom work was not working well, and you’re ready to get out a blank piece of paper and start from scratch, knowing that this is perhaps the only time in your career you might get this extent of a refresh and reset. Who knows – maybe you’ll establish a practice that scales well beyond you, and ends up bringing new and exciting opportunities your way.
The Future is Unwritten … But It Is Yours
Whether you agree or disagree with the potential segmentation posited above, I hope that you use this essay as a stimulus to think about what the Future of Work can mean for you. You are the author of the next chapter of your career, and it’s tremendously exciting to anticipate what each of us will put on the page – and put into the world.